The work explores past episodes of disruptive changes in the labour market in spain 1993 up 2024 , with consequences for the distribution of employment and occupations, in terms compared with what has been observed in other eu countries. The ultimate goal is to learn from past experiences at a time of change by the way IA. The results indicate the loss of skilled jobs direct production from industrial crisis of the early 1990s to present day, in spain and the other countries, and replacement with skilled jobs in indirect jobs, change that is explained by the canoe and automation of production processes. The IA threatens to automate and tecnificar tasks in indirect jobs and less-skilled workers, while the human capacities at the highest knowledge-intensive and creativity. We can therefore expect a new wave of change disruptive, this time affecting most of all the composition of the indirect employment. The comparatively low proportion of employed persons, including posts STEM posts, and ICT in executive positions in business organization, to Spain placed in a position of relative disadvantage that should seek to correct.

The possible consequences for employment and the economy in general of technological advances in artificial intelligence, IA, are general grounds for concern (Wike and Stokes, 2018 ). The concern about the unintended consequences for employment, job insecurity, inequality, … the automation of the productive process is repeated throughout history. The experience so far shows that the technology does not destroy jobs in the aggregate, but if transforms jobs, the tasks that are grouped in the same and forms in how to perform; the most recent example is the starring the information and communication technologies (Wall et al., 2017 ) ¹ . In relation to the immediate future, the labour market analysts and experts have predicted, among other things, that the IA will bring about a profound change in the work and that employers will importance to the traditional educational credential is the “ skills-based staff ” (see, for example, the World Economic Forum, 2023 ; Ellingrud et al. 2023 ).

This text describes the distribution of employed persons in spain in the different occupational categories covered by the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO- 08 ) and provides some assessments of their evolution over time since the change potentially disruptive of the IA. For each subperiodos under consideration in the availability of data, the longest between 1993 and 2024 the distribution of employed persons in Spain is compared with that in other countries of the european environment ² . The main objective is to learn from past situations in which external shocks has affected different nature of output and employment in Spain, with consequences for the occupational structure, and be better prepared to assess the impact that may have on the same structure by the eruption of IA, classified as general-purpose technology (Bresnahan, 2010 ).

The results indicate that, throughout the duration of the occupational structure has undergone significant changes from impacts by external shocks that occur in particular moments of time (industrial crisis of the early 1990s, financial crisis, health crisis …), spain and other countries around it. However, differences in the starting position, in the magnitude of changes and institutional frameworks, have led to a situation in which, in response to the classification ISCO, spain shows deficits regarding in STEM and professional professionals in highest positions in business management, in relation to the budgets of professionals and managers in other countries with which compares. This deficit could mean a weakness in seizing the opportunities for improvement of employment and productivity of the new emerging technologies.

The rest of the exposure is structured into three parts. In the first shows the evolution of the occupational distribution at the highest level of aggregation within the ISCO classification in the period 1993 - 2023 ; in the second to, for a shorter period depends on the availability of data, it focuses on the distribution of professional occupations, including the managers. The final paragraph contains the discussion and potential implications of the evidence.

Annex 1 displays the list of occupations covered within the ISCO classification at one and two digits. Table 1 summarizes the aggregation of occupations to single digits in categories, according to the level of qualification and the characteristics of the job, for the submission of data available.

The first data, only to Spain and referrals to the period 1993 - 2024 , are shown in figure 1 . At the beginning of the period, the occupational category with a higher proportion of persons working in spain, 37 . 4 percent of territories in direct jobs (production) media-alta qualification and category with a lower percentage, 16 . 3 percent of employed in low-skilled, direct the rest of the territories is split between, 21 per cent in the post of high qualification indirect and 25 per cent in low-skilled jobs In indirect costs. 1993 the territories, in direct posts (production), 54 %, exceed those engaged in indirect jobs, 46 per cent; similarly, the proportion of employed in jobs media-alta qualifications, 58 . 4 per cent than to the way of employees in low-skilled jobs, 41 . 6 In subsequent years the changing composition occupational activity, with a trend that continues throughout the period. 2024 , the proportion of people employed in lower direct 33 %, a loss of 21 % points 1993 ; however, according to qualification, media-alta versus low, variation is only two percentage points in favour of the low-skilled, 43 % 1993 to 41 % 2024 .

Throughout the temporary period there are three moments of change, the most disruptive industrial crisis of the early 1990s, the financial crisis 2008 and the pandemic by COVID 19 . The industrial crisis accelerated the loss of employment in occupations direct high qualification and increase the proportion of employed indirect high qualification. In the following years, until the crisis 2008 the replacement of territories in direct posts occupied by indirect jobs, within the group of highly qualified continues, although more gradually. 2009 and 2012 there is an abrupt change in the composition of occupations, with a relative increase of the territories in low-skilled, indirect, to the detriment of all other collective ³ . Finally, with the COVID 19 there have been further changes in the territories in posts with a relative increase of highly skilled.

Figure 2 complete figure 1 with the graphical representation of changes in the composition of occupied persons in spain between selected moments in time. Figure 2 , left, shows the activity, calculated as the sum of changes in absolute value of the proportions of employees in each category since the beginning at the end of each subperiodo. Clearly, the total rotation has evolved over the period, 18 per cent in the 1990s until 6 per cent for the period between 2016 and 2024 subperiodo; during the shorter of the past five years, marked effect of the crisis through COVID 19 rotation remains comparatively low. Therefore, turnover, as an indicator of the disruptive effects on the use of certain external shocks, drew attention to shocks caused by industrial crisis 1992 and by the financial crisis 2008 as more impact that could have come to the consolidation of penetration of icts, 2010 - 2016 and, with pandemic COVID 19 , 2019 - 2024 . The IA, as a general-purpose technology (widely used, capable of continuously improving and promoter of complementary innovations) could lead to a new episode of accelerated shift.

When analysing the composition of the total rotation differentiating what happens in each class of occupation, new relevant information, see 2 right. In the first and Last subperiodos turnover, only increases in the collective territories of highly qualified in indirect jobs; in the rest of collectives decreases proportionally. In the two subperiodos, an increase in the proportion of trained personnel in work indirect is greater than the decrease in the proportion of qualified direct work (difference of more than two percentage points) and the end result is an increase in the qualifications of persons employed (skill up-grading). In subperiodos period 2002 and 2016 in contrast, the average qualifications decreases (the difference between an increase in positions of high qualifications and the decrease in the proportion of qualified senior posts in indirect is approximately - 2 percentage points).

Regulating occupational classes according to the estimated average wage for each, are three categories: high wages (high qualification in indirect posts), average wages (low-skilled, indirect and direct high qualification) and low wages (low direct qualification). From this grouping is valued labour polarization, understood as the loss of relative weight of persons employed in posts with average wages in favour of the two extremes. Using the figure 2 the proportion of employed with the average wage level varies as follows, in percentage points: - 7 . 1 ( 1992 - 2002 ), - 4 . 6 ( 2002 - 2010 ), - 0 . 3 ( 2010 - 2016 ) and - 1 . 8 ( 2016 - 2024 ) ⁴ .

Comparisons with countries of the EU

Under this heading the percentage of female employed persons in each of the four categories deemed in Spain, compared with the developments of a subset of selected countries of the eu; available 3 . In general, trends in percentage of female employed persons in the various occupational classes are similar across countries compared, albeit with varying levels of game. In this regard stresses the increasing trend in the proportion of people employed in the kind of highly qualified in indirect jobs, and the downward trend in the proportion of employed persons in positions of high qualification. Spain is the country between compared with less proportion of people between the territories of highly qualified staff in posts indirect and Sweden the country with a higher proportion, with a difference of 22 percentage points. In the other extreme, proportion of employed in the kind of low-skilled, indirect, Spain shows the highest values and sweden the lowest, with a ratio of three to one.

A comparison between eu countries was extended to the proportion of employed persons media-alta with qualification, adding to direct and indirect jobs, 4 , and the test of convergence in the proportion of employees in the class of highly qualified indirect (i.e. the amount of managers and professionals, 5 .

The uneven development of the data in countries like spain and Italy explained presumably by changes in the classification criteria over time in the two countries (see note 2 ). With these protections are three groups of countries of the one hand, Germany and France with shares of territories of average high qualification stable in time, on the other countries like sweden where, since 2010 there is an increasing proportion of employed persons in this group; and finally Italy and spain with proportions in decline. Although COVID pandemic appears to have changed the trend in the development of the share of territories of media-alta qualification in Spain, 2024 the difference with sweden is 17 percentage points.

Convergence in the proportion of employed persons of high qualification (managers and professionals) occurs when the growth of the same between two periods of time is greater in countries with less proportion at the beginning of that period. Data for the countries from Eurostat statistics, 5 the proportion of employed as managers and professionals (high qualification indirect costs) is negatively correlated with the proportion of employed in that kind in the initial year 1992 (the slope of the line is negative and statistically significant p< 0. 05 ), but convergence is relatively weak as the proportion of initial less explains 25 per cent of the relative change variable throughout the period. The point for Spain, marked in red, is below the regression line indicating that the pace of convergence in Spain is less than the average in the whole eu. In contrast, Portugal, the country that is the point in the upper left part below Spain ( 0 . 215 address 0 . 29 ) in the proportion of employed persons in positions of high qualifications, but the proportion is growing markedly above ( 81 per cent 22 . 4 %).

In conclusion, although the proportion of employed persons of high qualification in indirect jobs (managers more professional) grows in Spain significantly throughout the period of study, growth is not sufficient to compensate the disadvantage of spain on the starting point towards the proportion of employed persons of high qualification of the border countries like sweden ⁵ .

In this subparagraph consists in more detail the evolution of the territories in the various categories that make up the group of qualified indirect jobs (digits 1 , 2 and 3 the classification of ISCO, table 1 ), which is growing most rapidly over the period. The information from Eurostat (and also of the INE to the figures for spain) is only available from 2011 . The managers and professionals are grouped in the analysis in the following categories, in response to the ISCO classification (Annex):

Professional Codes Management WORKSHOPS ARE: 11 , 12 , 13 , 14 , 24 , 33
Health and education professionals: 22 , 23 , 32
Scientists and technologists professionals (STEM): 21 , 25 , 31 , 35
Professional Social science, law and Culture: 26 , 34

In accordance with the figure 6 , with data only for Spain, the highest proportions of professionals on the total work force are observed in the categories of management and sanidad-educación; the lowest values, virtually half are professionals STEM (science, technology, engineering, art and mathematics), and legal professionals, social science and culture In the years. 2014 - 2015 is terminated, the financial crisis and debt in Spain and starts a period of recovery between 2015 and 2019 , interrupted by the COVID 19 . In the years pre COVID, the proportion of professional management decreases slightly (the appeal is indivisible and great periods of the economy, the total employment is growing proportionally more than the amount of resources necessary to manage the managers). Moreover, according to the recovery from 2017 it starts to rally the proportion of professionals in health and education, whose employment was frozen during the years of crisis. The financial crisis and debt was not an impediment to the gradual growth in the proportion of lawyers, the CCSS and culture. The pandemic by COVID accelerated the increase in the proportion of professionals educación-salud and changed the trend in the development of the share of management professionals (opposite situation to that of the former contractionary phase). Finally, in the post pandemic, the proportion of professionals STEM grows slightly.

Comparisons with countries of the EU

The data of territories in the various occupational categories in spain is now in comparison with the perspective of the selected countries of the eu; available 7 .

Spain shows the lowest proportions among the lowest in developing countries, compared with some differences. Once again, Sweden remains the country that tends to occupy top positions in the proportion of employed in all professional profiles, except the health workers and educators who shares that first position In Germany. 2023 the proportion of business professionals in the total number of employees in sweden exceeds that of spain 10 percentage points; the group of professionals STEM, the proportion in Sweden is almost double that of Spain. In Sweden, all professional profiles gain weight over time, emphasizing the important increase in Ict from professionals 2016 in the future (included in the collective STEM); in Spain, in contrast, dominates stability. Throughout the period 2011 to 2023 the proportion of ICT professionals in spain is doubled, but from very low levels, so that at the end of the proportion is 1 % of employees; in that same year the average of the euro zone is 2 . 5 in Sweden and ICT professionals account 5 . 7 per cent of the territories.

As in the preceding subparagraph with the set of categories of territories, levels and developments in the proportion of professionals has to be similar in Spain and italy, on the one hand, and between italy and france on the other. This includes provision on the needs of professionals in the near future, the more positive sign for spain is moderate growth in the relative share of professionals STEM from 2019 although since starting levels comparatively low.

The distribution of employed persons in the different occupational categories that can be built on the foundations of ISCO classification, spain and the neighbouring countries has varied considerably over the past 30 years. Among the changes highlighted the loss of relative weight of employees relatively skilled jobs directly, i.e. specialists with training and experience in agriculture and industry (categories 6 , 7 and 8 the classification ISCO- 08 ). The automation of direct production processes in primary and secondary sectors have been instrumental in achieving this result, although some episodes such as the industrial crisis of the early 1990s and the financial crisis 2008 the general trend perturbaros. In the case of spain for the loss of relative weight of this group of employees stops at 2014 . Therefore, in the period of recovery after the financial crisis and debt in the euro area, the proportion of employees in direct posts media-alta qualification has remained stable, unlike other countries where the proportion has continued to decline. Draft re-industrialización set out in the Eu and in Spain could lead to a recovery of the relative weight in this occupational category in the near future.

The loss of relative weight of the most qualified employees in the jobs of production (direct) been offset by the increase in the relative weight of employment in the professional classes and technical (categories 1 , 2 and 3 ), and staff administration and sale (categories 4 and 5 ) In other words it replaces the indirect employment. In terms of qualification and polarization in the period of study in Spain is rising slightly the relative weight of the most qualified employees and increases the polarization (decline in the relative weight of the territories with average wages). In terms compared with the countries of central and northern europe, spain has proportionally fewer professionals in indirect jobs and, within this group, with less professionals in management and in STEM, including ICT professionals. If the canoe and automation of processes and tasks within the direct production processes for the loss of relative weight of the most qualified working directly in the past, the threat to transform the present and future lies in the “ computerización ” of all jobs (Frey and Osborne, 2017 ), also indirect taxation, with the increased use of the IA.

As noted above, ai includes between GPT general purpose, the greatest capacity for transformation in the medium and long term. In general terms, IA — and automatic learning (ML, by its initials in english) in particular — is a technology that improves the ability to analyse and interpret data and in that regard is considered a step further on the progress of the information and communication technologies that began 50 years. The novelty of the IA/ML in the data were used: instead of following a set of explicit instructions (for example, the code of software) previously planned, algorithms of IA/ML "" learn about the world to study and copying actions and implicit rules emerging from patterns that detects in the data ” (Author 2015 ; Brynjolfsson et al., 2019 ).

As a prediction technology (Agrawal et al., 2019 ), IA can predict the legal responsibility from the language of a contract; the probability of a medical image specifies a specific disease; and the next word or phrase into a standard office, among many other possibilities. Since the majority of jobs require a certain capacity to forecast and decision-making, IA automate tasks of virtually all jobs in the economy (see, for example, Like Deming 2021 ; Eloundou et al. 2023 ). It is therefore likely that the impact of the IA on work is comprehensive and lasting settlement, in line with what happened with other GROUPS in the past, but again in response to past history, the change will be expected to slow and difficult paths to anticipate.

Based on its comparative advantages, guess is that the IA possibilities higher penetration as a force for change in occupations which include management functions and administration of the sale of qualification requirements medias-bajas. If we include in this group to the categories 3 (technical and vocational secondary level), 4 (administrative support staff) and 5 (service workers and sellers of shops and markets) of the ISCO classification, 2023 the territories in all of them are from the 40 . 8 % in spain 47 . 8 % in italy ( 43 . 6 % the euro area). In fact, the proportion of territories in those categories is in decline 2019 , 3 . 3 percentage points in Spain and 2 percentage points in the euro area. In contrast, in the same period, the collective management practitioners in the levels of 1 and 2 the classification of ISCO have increased their relative weight by one percentage point.

Although part of the growth in management occupations can respond to changes in the name of existing workers (classifying a worker as managing "" instead of "supervisor" office), also responds to differences in the type of work. The occupational descriptions of supervisors sales office and emphasize the task of monitoring of workers and administrative processes, while the descriptions of the more managerial roles include analysis, strategy and decision-making. In Addition, those employed in higher echelons of management tend to have more years of formal education. Experience suggests that the improvement of occupational office work should continue. The function of a worker is to connect sales companies with consumers who wish to buy their products; the same as that of workers of administrative support is to reduce the friction of communication and coordination between our clients and the company, or between workers within the enterprise; in both cases, it is a question of brokering functions.

The algorithms of pricing and personalized product recommendations, inventory management, the written and oral transcription, automated programming … are some of the many innovations in sales and administrative support that have been made possible by artificial intelligence. In each case, the objective of innovation is to increase productivity through facilitating the transmission of information within companies and between these and external markets. As IA technology improves, these innovations could lead to a reduction in employment in occupations of sales and administrative support. The impact of the IA in managerial and professional workers is more uncertain.

There are indications that models of large language (LLMs, by its initials in english) and other tools of IA substitute for knowledge workers highly skilled workers in some work assignments (Like Deming et al., 2024 ). If so, the tasks superseded by the IA will soon standardized functions within the labour market. These tasks include drafting, the business plans, the generation of ideas on how to incumbent newspaper articles and publications, and the writing or translation of the code of software. As a result, the remaining tasks — analysis, decision-making and reconciling conflicting perspectives and wishes of the colleagues — will gain more importance. While the IA can help with these tasks, the demand for good ideas and consistent analysis of experiments of thought contrafactual complex (for example, assess the possible impact of different business decisions, strategies of products, etc.) can grow without limits.

The forecast is, therefore, that the IA, at least in the short term, is relatively more useful for businesses as a tool with which use the knowledge workers increased productivity in the workplace, which as a replacement for the workers themselves. If so, the answers in the form of public policies must be a greater public spending in education and training in STEM, as well as in the retraining of employed persons, to a more effective use of new technologies. To this scenario of automation of tasks and indirect jobs in the areas of the administration and sales, and increased use of the IA for knowledge workers and the leadership of more creative content, it is urgent that Spain corrected its weaknesses, including the relative deficits STEM, and professional management practitioners at the highest levels of business organization.

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The INE published statistical data, only from 2011 , concerning the distribution of occupations of persons employed in Spain that make possible the separation of information between the distribution for the total work force (which includes public and private sectors) and Only for the territories of the private sector. In this annex presents the results separately for purposes of comparison for the addition of occupational categories set forth in table 1 the main text Is Provided; 2 . 1 .

Clearly, the qualifications of persons employed in the private sector is significantly lower than in the territories in the whole economy, as a result of the total weight of the territories in the public sector with greater middle-. Stresses the comparatively low proportion of people employed in the sector of managers and professionals (high qualification in indirect posts) and highest in the category of elementary occupations (low-skilled, direct posts), in the private sector than in the public sector of the economy. To date, the remarkable growth in the proportion of professionals and directors from the pandemic is greater in the private sector in the economy and, therefore, that in the public sector.

I appreciate the comments and Victor Montuenga during production, although the final text is my Sole responsibility.